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Predictions for 2009

You know you want them...

Several people have dumped out their predictions for this year. I'm a bit delayed, but too bad.

Predictions:

* Economy - Still like a yoyo on crack, but this time more bouncing along the bottom, waiting for the rest of the world to touch down as well.

* Jobs - What's that flushing sound? Lots more American and European jobs going down the crapper. The ones that will replace them will be like one ply toilet paper, until July or so.

* Money - What's that? Tight, tight tight. Avoid debt, folks. Credit'll be expensive or unavailable until September.

* Israel/Palestine - In the future, they will call this crap with Israel, Palestine and the like the "100 years war". Temporary lulls here and there, but nothing lasting as long as the likes of Hamas and other fundamentalists are in power. The people suffer and die.

* Iraq - Like a bed of quicksand, even Obama will have a hard time convincing the DoD/Army brass to just fucking leave without calling it a "loss" or "cowardice". We'll still be there next damn January.

* Afghanistan - A little improvement, once it regains focus.

* Al Queda - Who? Oh, the guys that Bush forgot about. Too bad they haven't forgotten about him, or Cheney. They will probably send Cheney expensive gifts in Dubai to thank him for his aid to their cause.

* Russia/Georgia - The bear will roar, and be assholes. Nothing like a good war to distract people from corruption for a while.

* China - Bloody. Between their lax environmental standards, poor quality assurance on food materials, foreign leased sweatshops and the decline in manufacturing when the west can't afford the cheap crap anymore, look to see a lot of unrest, crackdowns, diseases, unrest, etc.

* Technology - Moribund in the first half, picking up when people understand that Obama is serious about it.

* US Healthcare - No solutions, just bandaids that hurt the average joe more than they help (like "requiring" people to "buy" health "insurance"). This won't change until Washington gets really pissed about the health insurance industry intransigence. This won't happen until a relative of someone important, celebrity, political or otherwise, dies due to health insurance penny pinching and denials.

* JCI Religion - Too many shrill fundamentalists, too little ammunition. Regardless of fundament, they will be monkey wrenching human rights and progress just as much this year as last. On the bright side, a few may actually start actually listening to their gods/prophets, and start doing good work instead of sowing hate.

* Non-JCI Religion (US) - Mostly stealth gains, some big fights as the JCI crowd tries the "but we were here first" line.

* Weather - Hoo boy! Can you say "climate change"? I knew you could! Lots of radical weather, and death in its wake, all over the world. Batten down the hatches.

* Obama - Like any first term president, he will make errors. That and people love to gripe, and hate.
- - The disaffected racists and rethuglicans will be a particularly thorny issue, and they could get very violent. The secret service will have its hands full. Fortunately Obama is athletic, and is street smart enough to duck.
- - Running the country is like herding cats - best done with tuna and a voice they know. Fortunately, his voice will carry a lot of weight, because he'll need all of his public speaking talent to convince people that the party's over, and the bill is due.
- - He idolizes Lincoln, and has the oratory skill of the likes of Kennedy and FDR. He will overcome a lot of resistance even within his own party to put the country on the fiscal diet and exercise plan that it needs (reduce bloat, renew infrastructure, etc.)
- - He will propose some initially unpopular stuff, and manage to ram it through. His rating will drop below 50% for a month or two, then the rest will fall into place and people will go "Oh, that's why we had to do that!" and give him the thumbs up. He's gotta not flinch, fortunately he's used to hardball politics from Chicago - a black politician in the den of the lily white Daleys?
- - People think of Obama as a feel-good guy. They will be shocked at the amount of metaphorical steel in his spine.

* Gay Marriage - The fat lady hasn't sung yet, and won't this year, either. Look for more protests, as gay couples and their friends get really, really tired of playing nice with the fundies and bigots. "Tolerance isn't the same as being a Doormat" might be a saying, here. Strides will be made, but the fundies will draw literal blood.

* Medicine - A few surprises, but nothing earthshaking. The new Surgeon General will start making headway on sanity in the field midyear.

* The new FDA will take a hard look at some of the Bush era regulations and rulings, and go, "you've got to be kidding me, this is stupid and wrong". Science will return to regulation.

* Science - Obama will waffle a bit on Nasa. Still, science in general will return to the halls of the federal government, and kick the faith-based crap to the curb. It'll just take most of the year to find it all.

* The diet industry will still go on strong, aided by the shrill squawking of the rabid anti-fat folks, who will be even more emboldened by their fellows the anti-smoking brigade. But you still can't get cancer from second hand calories or fat.

* Education - Turning this around will begin in late 2009, after summer. It will not finish for years.

* H-1(b) - Lots of pressure with the downturn to make this go away. Problem? Too many cheap-assed companies own too many in Congress to let it go away. Again, it will take a highly public scandal to get any change here.

* IT - Offshoring is still king, and will be until the offshore places break out in riots and wars. Spending will stay low, here, because no one really has the money. Only spam will increase. Still, Moore's law will bring prices on geek toys down more.

* Stock Market - If you buy, buy solid and hold. If the company deals only in ink on paper, or nebulous "services", give it a miss. Hard goods that are staples and/or essentials, or services that can't be off-shored or done without, only. Look for efficiency without cheapness, and a solid 5 year plan.

* Pandemic - Look for more outbreaks in Asia and Africa - China, India, Pakistan, Korea, and other overcrowded areas. The economic downturn will actually help them *not* to become global, but they still will be regional. Totalitarian states will make things worse by denial or mishandled response.

* Energy - Gas will go back up to $4/gal by July, when the oil companies, the sheiks, and the people who game the futures martkets get ticked off at Obama trying to curb their power. Then watch the fireworks.
* Fashion - Just plain gross. Trash chic is already here, but it will get worse, with the second-hand store look being very prevalent. A good thing if you're poor, but oh, my eyes!

* Big 3 Automakers - They'll get their fucking bailout, by February, even though they shouldn't.

* Bailouts - Look for lots of scandals later in the year when Congress goes back to ask "So, how was our money spent, what's our return?" and gets waffling and lies from the Bush cronies on Wall Street who got the lion's share. Jail time for some starting next year. The taxpayer is still left holding the bag. Obama will actually get pissed off about this, shocking a lot of people.

* Terror - Little incidents, but nothing earth shattering or novel.

* DHS - This department will prove to be corrupt and scandal ridden, to the point that someone from Chicago and its Daley machine will be called in to clean it up.

* Immigration - No changes of substance here, Deck chair arranging only.

* Environment - Small strides as environmental responsibility takes hold in the US heartland, stewardship and all. Habitual environmental consciousness will be more common. However, China will make up for it as it continues to treat the environment like it does people - disposable. China's pollution output will soon exceed the US.

* Social stuff - The "I got mine, fuck everyone else" era of privilege and entitlement will be put to bed, painfully and slowly, amidst lots of squealing "It's not faaaair!!" by the very architects of unfairness. It will still be lingering at the end of the year, but noticeable by its presence, not its absence.

* Deaths - More famous boomers buying it. Cremation vendors will do a booming business.

* LJ - It will still be here all year, but the level of service and bug fixes will go waaay down, until it is sold again sometime around August at a fire-sale price.

That's all for now. Comments?

Comments

( 1 comment — Leave a comment )
chipuni
Jan. 8th, 2009 12:27 am (UTC)
Gay marriage won't change until there's a big stink about two "nice, next-door" (read: white) ladies who lose the son that they love. Best if the son's father died "defending the country".

( 1 comment — Leave a comment )

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