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Oh, Shit

Q4 2009 and Q1 2010 most of my 401k funds made a little money. True to form, Q2 the economy improved.

My 401k's are leading indicators, by about 4 - 6 months. No, I don't know why. You'd think it would be the opposite, but they predicted the dot com crash, and this crash, and dip before that clued me what to watch for.

Just went over my Q2 statements. All of my funds lost money again to the tune of 5% to 8%. This winter will suck - we are headed for a double dip, thanks to Congress and the corporate "deficit sissy" lobby.

My crystal ball says, you need to save your pennies and see if you can land work before October. Do not take on any new debt that you can avoid.

The second bloodletting as the corporates try to assure their hegemony will be nasty.

Comments

( 4 comments — Leave a comment )
siliconshaman
Jul. 21st, 2010 12:27 am (UTC)
That tallies with what I've been seeing predicted else-net [once you get away from the official figures and into the real predictions]. Baically, back half of this year, Q1&2 of next year, the economy is going into a steep decline...and probably cratering sometime mid 2011.

After that, it's anyone's guess, but I wouldn't expect to see signs of real recovery, globally, before 2015 at minimum, probably not before 2020.

Which is a pity, because if we're going to mitigate the worst effects of global warming, we as a species, need to be making some pretty intensive capital infrastructure investments right now.
ravan
Jul. 21st, 2010 12:43 am (UTC)
<cynical>Well, people who are homeless, starving or dead use less greenhouse resources, right?</cynical>

If I don't get work or the US congress doesn't re-up unemployment, I may end up homeless. Depends on if I can crack my 401k's for enough money before they're worthless.
siliconshaman
Jul. 21st, 2010 12:53 am (UTC)
I dunno if anyone's done a greenhouse gases impact study for the dead...I'd imagine they'd release carbon as they slowly decompose.
;P

But yeah, there's a lot on my f-list in a similar or worse position... either no 401k or worse, no home already. It's kind like a death watch... who's going under this week.

Honestly, at this rate, I'm going to start giving out advice on how to live on the streets safely, and how to take 'adverse possession' of empty property and set up a utilities independent household.

*sigh*

Looks like it's going to be a cyber-punk future after all... only without the hi-tech.
melchar
Jul. 22nd, 2010 01:51 am (UTC)
To be honest, if the choice is global warming [aka 'violent climate change'] or a new Ice Age, I vote for the warming. An Ice Age will leave the planet healthier ... by killing off most of the inconvenient humans mucking up the place. And yes, this IS me being optinistic. ^_^
( 4 comments — Leave a comment )

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